Be honest, especially about household expenses — that's the number that determines everything.
Rent/mortgage, utilities, food, insurance, debt payments, transportation. Don't lowball this.
Net pay that hits your bank account. Used to show the gap your maker business needs to close.
Revenue minus all costs (materials, labor, fees, shipping). Pre-tax — we'll apply self-employment and income tax below.
Typical handmade growth in years 1–2: 5–15% month-over-month. We damp the rate by half after month 18 and to a quarter after month 36 to model real-world saturation.
Liquid savings you'd be willing to spend on household expenses if the business stayed flat. Not retirement accounts.
12.4% Social Security + 2.9% Medicare. Self-employed people pay both halves (FICA equivalent).
Your blended effective rate, not your marginal bracket. Most small-business owners land around 10–18%.
Months of household expenses you want to keep in reserve AFTER quitting. 6 is the conventional minimum for self-employment.
Same inputs, three different answers — pick the framing that fits how you actually decide.
Pure growth math — when does your after-tax maker profit, growing month over month, equal your household expenses? You're still working the day job in this scenario.
Defensive math — months of household expenses your savings cover if the business stayed completely flat. The pessimistic case.
The disciplined answer — first month where your business covers expenses and savings plus accumulated business surplus clears your 6-month emergency fund.
Same model, three plausible variations — each row shows the new safe-quit month.
| Scenario | Safe-quit month | Δ vs. base |
|---|---|---|
| Growth slows by half | > 5 years | pushes past 5 years |
| Household expenses cut 15% | Month 18 | -4 months sooner |
| Retail prices raised 10% | Month 20 | -2 months sooner |
Inside 22 months the model converges. Treat the next 12 months as the build-up window — every additional dollar of profit saved compresses the safe-quit month, and the diminishing-returns curve hits hard after month 18, so the gains you bank in months 1–17 do the heavy lifting.
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