Sample data pre-filled — a maker earning $1,200/mo from their side business, $5,000 day-job take-home, $4,000 household expenses, $20,000 savings, 8%/mo growth. Edit any field to model your own situation.

Your numbers

Be honest, especially about household expenses — that's the number that determines everything.

$/ month

Rent/mortgage, utilities, food, insurance, debt payments, transportation. Don't lowball this.

$/ month after tax

Net pay that hits your bank account. Used to show the gap your maker business needs to close.

$/ month (gross profit)

Revenue minus all costs (materials, labor, fees, shipping). Pre-tax — we'll apply self-employment and income tax below.

8%

Typical handmade growth in years 1–2: 5–15% month-over-month. We damp the rate by half after month 18 and to a quarter after month 36 to model real-world saturation.

$

Liquid savings you'd be willing to spend on household expenses if the business stayed flat. Not retirement accounts.

% (US default 15.3%)

12.4% Social Security + 2.9% Medicare. Self-employed people pay both halves (FICA equivalent).

% effective

Your blended effective rate, not your marginal bracket. Most small-business owners land around 10–18%.

months reserve

Months of household expenses you want to keep in reserve AFTER quitting. 6 is the conventional minimum for self-employment.

Your runway, three ways

Same inputs, three different answers — pick the framing that fits how you actually decide.

Day-job take-home$5,000/mo
Gap to close$3,128/moyour maker business still needs to replace
Months until business covers expenses
22 months
at 8% growth

Pure growth math — when does your after-tax maker profit, growing month over month, equal your household expenses? You're still working the day job in this scenario.

Savings runway if you quit today
6.4 months
on savings alone

Defensive math — months of household expenses your savings cover if the business stayed completely flat. The pessimistic case.

Conservative "safe-quit" month
Month 22
income covers + 6mo reserve

The disciplined answer — first month where your business covers expenses and savings plus accumulated business surplus clears your 6-month emergency fund.

What if…

Same model, three plausible variations — each row shows the new safe-quit month.

Sensitivity scenarios — safe-quit month at three plausible growth and burn-rate variations, with the delta versus the current model in months.
ScenarioSafe-quit monthΔ vs. base
Growth slows by half> 5 yearspushes past 5 years
Household expenses cut 15%Month 18-4 months sooner
Retail prices raised 10%Month 20-2 months sooner
Yellow — within 2 years if growth holds

Inside 22 months the model converges. Treat the next 12 months as the build-up window — every additional dollar of profit saved compresses the safe-quit month, and the diminishing-returns curve hits hard after month 18, so the gains you bank in months 1–17 do the heavy lifting.

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